As it takes the ASEAN Chair in 2014, Myanmar must lead from the front if it is to cement its place in the region and the world, writes Mathew Davies.

In 2014 Myanmar will take up the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for the first time.

The role of ASEAN Chair offers little material advantage, but it bestows considerable regional and wider prestige. Coming after Myanmar’s recent steps towards democracy, it promises to reinforce the legitimacy of Myanmar’s government.

The last time its turn came around, in 2005, Myanmar was denied the chair, “persuaded” by fellow members to relinquish that position in the face of regional disquiet over the conduct of the then ruling military junta.

If it performs well in 2014 it will gain much diplomatic kudos, heightened by the likelihood that 2014 promises to be a particularly important year in both ASEAN and wider regional politics.

Successful performance depends on Myanmar displaying not only a command of the bureaucratic functions of the Chair, but also real vision and leadership to drive ASEAN forwards.

There are three areas of potential concern: the internal workings of ASEAN’s community building process, the external issues created as ASEAN and its members engage with wider East Asian politics, and the question of Myanmar’s capacity.

The final push is on to realise the ASEAN Community mandated by the ASEAN Charter of 2007, involving closer economic, social and cultural cooperation.

Myanmar will be leading an organisation that now has clear, on-paper commitments to human rights, democracy and the rule of law, with its own declaration of rights.

Cambodia’s year in the driving seat in 2012, and the wrangles at the Phnom Penh summit over China’s assertive stance in the South China Sea, suggests that dealing with ASEAN’s dialogue partners will be no easy task, especially those that provoke strong and divided sentiment between ASEAN members.

Myanmar will have to display diplomatic finesse in its dialogue with extra-regional actors, either through the ASEAN+3 discussions with China, Japan and South Korea or the 18- member East Asia Summit that, crucially, includes the United States.

ASEAN claims a “central role” in these discussions, but many question whether it can offer any substantial contribution beyond ongoing and open-ended discussion. Dialogue partners, may well want more concrete “ends”. Myanmar will need to engage with those claims as never before. 

Often assumed to be in China’s orbit, Myanmar has recently displayed greater willingness to strike its own path in political and economic affairs. The position of chair will throw this relationship into high relief, as confrontation continues in the South China Sea.

ASEAN’s longstanding focus on internal harmony is disturbed by conflicting, territorial claims among member states. As well, China’s “nine-dash line” stakes a maximalist claim encompassing nearly the entire sea.

Then there’s the logistics and diplomatic delicacies of the hundreds of meetings each year at various levels and on a wide range of issues, between the ASEAN members. The call on infrastructure and bureaucratic effort to manage the East Asia Summit delegations is especially heavy.

For a state long accustomed to a low diplomatic profile these are considerable challenges. Success will cement Myanmar’s position as a productive member of ASEAN and illustrate what it has to offer to regional politics. Problems, if managed poorly, will do little to build the profile and reputation Myanmar seeks.

Dr Mathew Davies is an international relations specialist at the Department of International Relations in ANU College of Asia and the Pacific.